![]() Strong vertical wind shear can impede storm formation by removing heat and moisture from the atmosphere. Vertical wind shear arises from changes in wind speed or direction between Earth’s surface and the top of the troposphere (10 kilometers/6 miles above sea level). ![]() Kossin noted that storms need low vertical wind shear and moist air in order to form, intensify, and persist. Hall is quick to note, however, that the coastal impacts of the storms have been relatively mild, as no storm strengthened into a hurricane.īeyond a warm ocean, a combination of factors also need to line up in order to create strong storms. The fifth and sixth named tropical storms of 2020-Eduoard and Fay-occurred earlier than any other in the five decades of satellite observations. “2020 is leading the pack in the number of tropical storms so far,” said Hall. MUR SST blends measurements of sea surface temperatures from multiple NASA, NOAA, and international satellites, as well as ship and buoy observations. The data come from the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (MUR SST) project, based at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The map below shows sea surface temperature anomalies for the same day, indicating how much the water was above or below the long-term average (2003-2014) temperature for July 14. The map above shows sea surface temperatures on July 14, 2020. In early July, parts of the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean) hit temperatures of 30☌ (86☏). Ocean waters typically need to be above 27☌ (80☏) for storms to develop. As water vapor rises and condenses, it releases heat that warms the surrounding air and can promote the growth of storms. Warm ocean water evaporates and provides moisture and energy for the lower atmosphere. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean have been abnormally warm so far in 2020, which could help fuel storms. “But if we’re in a season where the environment is conducive to storm formation early on, then those underlying favorable conditions often persist throughout the season.” “Early season storm activity does not necessarily correlate with later hurricane activity,” said Jim Kossin, an atmospheric scientist with NOAA. ![]() Storm formation and intensification depend on a number of complex variables and conditions, and several are lining up in favor of robust activity in 2020. This year, forecasters predicted 13 to 19 named storms, of which 6 to 10 would become hurricanes. A typical year brings 12 named storms (winds of at least 63 kilometers/39 miles per hour), of which 6 become hurricanes (winds of at least 120 kilometers/74 miles per hour). None of the storms reached hurricane intensity, but the sheer number of them fit with forecasts of a busy season.įorecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center predicted in May that 2020 would likely be an above-average hurricane season. ![]() Less than two months into hurricane season, the Atlantic basin has already produced six named storms, delivering some of the earliest activity in the past fifty years. ![]()
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